With the 2021 NFL draft weeks away, there is no position group dominating the headlines like quarterback. The opportunity for teams to draft a talented signal-caller on a rookie contract allows for money to be spent elsewhere, giving teams the opportunity to open their Super Bowl windows earlier by building a talented team around their young quarterback. However, taking a quarterback that doesn’t pan out early in the draft is a mistake that can send teams back to the beginning stages of a rebuild. This year’s class has a very exciting group of prospects, including five quarterbacks that have the chance to be picked within the top 10 selections. After watching 13 quarterbacks eligible for this year’s draft, here are my rankings and assessments of each prospect.
*Note: Value is where I would draft each player, not where I expect them to be drafted. I also want to clarify that I would be comfortable taking players with both a top 5 pick value and an early first-round value in the top 5 picks of the 2021 NFL draft, I made the contrast to show a difference of tier in the quality of prospect*
13: Sam Ehlinger, Texas
6’1 1/8, 220 lbs.
Sam Ehlinger came into the University of Texas in 2017 as a four-star recruit, and from watching him play at Texas it’s pretty clear why he was such a highly-touted recruit. He has a strong arm and his dense build allowed him to take on a large part of Texas’s rushing offense, which was crucial for its success. However, other than these two skills, I don’t think Ehlinger has much to offer as an NFL quarterback. Ehlinger lacks consistency as a passer and misses too many easy throws that he would need to make at the next level. He’s not afraid to try difficult throws and he can complete them on occasion, but his lack of accuracy leads to many of these attempts being off the mark. Overall, I think Ehlinger simply has too much development needed in order to become an NFL-level passer.
Value: UDFA
12: Feleipe Franks, Arkansas
6’ 6 5/8, 234 lbs.
Formerly of the University of Florida, Feleipe Franks transferred to the University of Arkansas before the 2020 season following a gruesome lower-leg injury in 2019. Franks has a large frame, mobility, and an NFL caliber arm, and occasionally can make great out-of-structure plays that are so crucial in today’s NFL. What Franks lacks is consistency of any kind. He has inconsistent mechanics that lead to him missing easy throws, and a lot of the time he plays completely out of control, to the point where it feels like any given play can be a long touchdown, a back-breaking turnover, or anything in between. Franks may have the tools that other late Day 3/UDFA quarterbacks don’t, but he needs so much refinement and development to become an NFL contributor that I struggle to see how he even becomes an NFL backup.
Value: UDFA
11: Ian Book, Notre Dame
6’0, 211 lbs.
If you take Feleipe Franks and make a quarterback that is the opposite of him in every way, it probably looks something like Ian Book. Ian Book was a 3-year starter at Notre Dame, and he finished his college career with the Notre Dame record for wins by a starting quarterback, as well as two College Football Playoff appearances. As a prospect, Book generally makes good decisions with the football and usually keeps the ball out of the hands of the defense. I was also impressed with Book’s rushing ability, which helped propel Notre Dame to win over the eventual ACC champion Clemson Tigers last season. Book’s limitations primarily come from his lack of arm talent. Book can make deep throws over the middle of the field with good ball placement, but his throws lack velocity and lead to turnovers when throwing into tight windows. When Book throws intermediate or deep towards the sideline, he is wildly inaccurate and the ball tends to die on him, which puts a ceiling on the amount of NFL-caliber throws he can make. Overall, Book may be able to stick on a practice squad or on a team as a low-level backup, but his lack of physical talent most likely means that he is already near his ceiling.
Value: UDFA
10: Jamie Newman, Georgia
6’2 7/8, 235 lbs.
Jamie Newman has had an interesting path to the draft. He transferred to the University of Georgia from Wake Forest before the 2020 college football season, but he ended up opting out of the season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. From his games at Wake Forest, I thought that Newman had an NFL caliber arm and good deep-ball accuracy. He also has good rushing ability, and I thought flashed some ability to make throws on the run. Where I saw Newman struggle the most was when he was under pressure. Newman’s accuracy deteriorated when pressured and there were too many instances where that pressure caused an errant throw that led to an interception. Newman does not have a good feel for managing pressure in the pocket and he takes some careless sacks when he doesn’t need to. His accuracy on short throws also leaves something to be desired. I could see a team taking a chance on Newman in the later rounds as developmental backup, but he will need a lot of polish.
Value: 7th round
9: Shane Beuchele, SMU
6’0 2/8, 210 lbs.
After transferring from the University of Texas to SMU before the 2019 college football season Shane Beuchele enjoyed a nice two year stint as the Mustang’s starting quarterback. While Beuchele does not have the developmental traits that some of the quarterbacks I have ranked lower than him have, he is pretty polished and he has shown enough consistency to translate to being a mid-tier NFL backup. Beuchele shows good accuracy to the short and intermediate areas of the fields. He has enough arm talent to make throws down the sideline and to throw from different arm angles, which is what put him ahead of Ian Book in my rankings. I thought Beuchele displayed good touch on deeper passes which is something he will need to keep improving on as along as his accuracy as he transitions to the next level due to his limited arm strength. Beuchele does not have the worst arm in the class, but it is definitely below average by NFL standards. Beuchele will have trouble making tight-window throws especially when the windows in the NFL are so small, so how good he ends up will largely depend on how much he can improve his processing speed and ball placement to make up for his arm strength. Additionally, Beuchele does not offer much as a runner and is not the best at throwing on the run. He can make poor throwing decisions at times, which led to turnovers. Overall, Beuchele might be serviceable if he has good protection and can be a serviceable spot starter, but other than that, his lack of physical ability will likely prevent him from being a high-level backup or starter.
Value: 6th round
8: Kyle Trask, Florida
6’5 2/8, 236 lbs.
Kyle Trask’s 2020 season was almost as great as his journey to get to that point. From never starting a game in high school after his freshman year to finally getting a chance to start in his junior season at Florida to becoming a Heisman finalist in his senior season is truly a remarkable journey. As a prospect, Kyle Trask is a very accurate passer who can make throws to all areas of the field. When playing within structure, Trask at times has pinpoint accuracy, allowing his great group of receivers to make plays in Florida’s potent offense. The drawbacks of Kyle Trask as a prospect largely stem from his lack of arm talent and mobility. Trask gets very little velocity on his throws, meaning that if he does not put the ball in the perfect spot, there is a great chance that the pass will be broken up or intercepted. Although Trask had a great year statistically, he also benefitted from a prolific group of pass catchers which included potential top-5 pick in tight end Kyle Pitts and potential top-50 pick in wide receiver Kadarius Toney. Pitts and Toney were great at creating open windows for Trask to throw, and especially Pitts was great at coming down with contested catches. Trask does not provide much out of structure, combining that with his lack of arm strength, leads me to believe that Trask does not possess the skill set necessary to become an NFL starter, and the more likely path for Trask is that he ends up as a backup quarterback aided by a great supporting cast and offensive system.
Value: 5th round
7: Davis Mills, Stanford
6’3 6/8, 217 lbs.
To be completely honest, I didn’t even know that Davis Mills declared for the draft until about a month ago. After doing more research on Mills, I think I found out why. After coming into Stanford as a highly-touted recruit in 2017, Mills suffered a knee injury that prevented him from playing during his redshirt freshman season. He then served as Stanford’s backup quarterback until midway through his junior season in 2019. Combining that with the PAC-12’s shortened 2020 season, Davis Mills has 11 total starts in his collegiate career, which is by far the lowest of the quarterbacks on this list. Aside from his small sample size of games played, I liked a lot of what I saw from Mills, especially in 2020. Mills has a strong arm and he can make throws to all levels of the field. I was impressed with how he was able to fit the ball into tight throwing windows. He shows flashes of good touch and one specific area I thought he improved a lot from 2019 to 2020 was his ability to throw without his feet set. In 2019, Mills missed just about every throw that I saw without his feet set, but in 2020 it didn’t seem to be a problem.
Although Mills is not very athletic himself, the ability for him to make throws on the run will help his NFL projection. I was quite impressed with how Mills played in Stanford’s conservative passing offense, as he gets the ball out quickly and accurately, reminiscent of the 49ers passing offense with Jimmy Garoppolo. While Mills shows some attractive qualities teams may want in an NFL starter, there is plenty he needs to work on as well. One weakness I found rather bizarre is that Mills seems to be uniquely bad at throwing screen passes. I saw him make throws that were both too high and too low for the receiver to catch and be in a good position to run, so that is something he will definitely have to work on at the next level. I think my biggest criticism of Mills might not be his fault, and that simply is it’s hard to get a complete picture of who he is as a player right now. With so few starts playing in an offense that does not throw deep often, it’s hard to get a full picture of what Mills could be aside from the few throws we saw at Stanford. He has good deep passing statistics for his college career, but I also saw him throw a deep ball too close to the middle of the field and right to a safety against Cal in 2020 that got called back due to a penalty. He simply has not made enough of these throws to get a full picture of what he will do when he has to make these throws in the NFL. Overall, I like Davis Mills, and I think he has the traits to possibly end up as a starting NFL quarterback one day. However, due to his lack of playing time as well as his limited passing profile in college, one team will have to get comfortable with the idea of drafting him with limited information, and I don’t know if a team does that before day 3 of the draft.
Value: 4th round
6: Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
6’2 5/8, 211 lbs.
As a 3-year starter in the SEC, Kellen Mond has the experience against top competition that NFL teams typically gravitate towards in the draft process. The problem with Mond is that from his playstyle you probably wouldn’t guess that he’s a three-year starter in the SEC. The upside of Mond is apparent. He might have the strongest arm out of the mid to late-round quarterbacks and he can make some eye-popping throws all over the field. He’s also a good athlete who will require defenses to account for his scrambling and rushing ability. Mond flashes the ability to make tight-window throws but these throws do not come consistently enough to be labeled as anything more than flashes. Mond needs to clean up a lot of aspects of his game if he’s to become an NFL starter, and the first is how often he turns the ball over. He throws some very bad interceptions and he also fumbles the ball too often, especially in a 2020 game against LSU where Mond fumbled the ball three times. Mond struggles in consistency passing to all levels of the field, especially towards the sidelines. He probably has the largest variance between his worst plays and his best plays in this quarterback class, which might make him a tough evaluation for a team looking for a non-first round quarterback with starter upside. Kellen Mond has the physical tools to be an NFL starter, but his inconsistent play is worrisome especially for a college quarterback with a lot of starting experience. If he can clean up these issues, he might be able to stick around in the NFL for a long time, but if not, he won’t be able to help an NFL team.
Value: 4th round
5: Mac Jones, Alabama
6’2 5/8, 217
What a season it’s been for Mac Jones. As the successor to Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama’s, Mac Jones had big shoes to fill. He exceeded all expectations on his way to an undefeated season and a National Championship as well as a Heisman finalist nomination. However, Mac Jones’s draft projection has gotten a little out of hand, especially with the rumors that he is in consideration to go to the 49ers with the third overall pick in the draft. Mac Jones’ strengths are pretty clear. When playing within the structure of Alabama’s offense, Mac Jones was very productive and he showed very good accuracy to all areas of the field. On deep passes, Jones can put the ball in the perfect spot for a receiver to catch it without breaking stride without giving the defender a chance to make a play on it. Jones also has very good footwork in the pocket, as he is very good at moving to avoid rushers even without elite athleticism. Jones doesn’t have a great arm by NFL standards but it’s also not bad enough completely inhibit him from being an effective NFL quarterback.
Where I struggle with Mac Jones is not so much about any bad play of his, but it’s more centered around his projection to the NFL. In order to become an elite NFL quarterback in the pocket passer mold, the quarterback has to know the game so well inside and out that the right decisions have to come as second nature no matter what the defense is doing. I’m sure that Mac Jones has a great understanding of football, but putting Tom Brady-like expectations on him requires him to have a Tom Brady-like understanding of the game which is an unrealistic goal for any prospect. I’m not saying that the expectations for Mac Jones are to be the greatest quarterback of all time, but a pocket passer without any exceptional physical traits has to understand the game at such a high level to become elite and I’m not sure that that’s a fair expectation to give Mac Jones. In regards to Jones’s accuracy, I have already mentioned how this was an area of his game that impressed me, but I want to make it clear that I don’t see Jones as an exceptionally accurate quarterback as his completion percentage might lead some to believe. Jones benefitted from one of the best coaching staff in the country as well as an exceptional wide receiver core of John Metchie, possible top-10 pick Jaylen Waddle, and Heisman award winner Devonta Smith. Although Waddle got hurt pretty early in the year, Devonta Smith was impossible to cover all season, constantly gaining huge amounts of separation from opposing defenders and making great adjustments to passes that were both over and underthrown.
Jones’s lack of elite arm strength might make it hard for him to make tight-window throws in the NFL, but it is also worth noting that Jones made very few tight-window throws in 2020 at Alabama so it is hard to project this aspect of his game to the next level. Jones is also a limited athlete and should not be counted on to make very many plays outside of the pocket. Overall, I like Mac Jones for what he is. I think some of the expectations that are being put on him are unfair to him and are bound to leave fans disappointed if he doesn’t become an elite pocket passer. We already know that Alabama’s offense might not translate to the NFL seamlessly, as evidenced by Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles during his rookie year, and we shouldn’t be surprised to see Mac Jones struggle early on either. Overall, I see Mac Jones as an average NFL starter in the mold of Kirk Cousins but with less arm strength.
Value: Late 1st/Early 2nd round
4: Zach Wilson, BYU
6’2 1/8, 214 lbs.
Zach Wilson was the most electric player in college football last year. After making highlight-reel throws week after week, Wilson made BYU football must-see TV, especially for fans of NFL teams looking for a new quarterback. The first thing that anybody talks about in regard to Zach Wilson is his arm talent, and it’s for great reason. Wilson makes throws that other quarterbacks simply cannot make. He doesn’t have the strongest arm in the class, although it is still very strong, he can make throws without his feet set and across his body with unbelievable accuracy and velocity. This makes Wilson especially dangerous because he plays with the mindset that no matter what position he is in or where his target is on the field he is always capable of getting the ball to them, and a lot of the time he is right. Wilson is also good at playing from the pocket, where he can accurately deliver passes all over the field. Wilson has unique quickness for a quarterback which helps him evade rushers and extend plays. He probably won’t have a lot of designed runs called for him but he is fast enough to do damage with his legs if the defense does not account for his running ability. His legs can also serve as a weapon in the red zone as evidenced by his 10 rushing touchdowns in 2020.
For how much Wilson liked to create out of structure and how often he looks for a big play, I was surprised that he only threw 3 interceptions in 2020, especially considering that one was on a Hail Mary at the end of the half against Coastal Carolina. Wilson is so naturally talented that he will try almost anything because he almost always gets away with it. He will need to learn to play within the structure of the offense more in the NFL and will need to recognize when he’s going too far off-script. Sometimes Wilson tries too hard to make a play and will make a poor decision late in a down that puts the ball in danger of getting intercepted. There were a couple of times that Wilson pulled the trigger on a throw before really seeing what the defense was giving him, which caused some interception-worthy throws. Overall, I think Zach Wilson is going to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL for a long time. As long as he learns to play under control, he is going to make the fanbase of whatever team that drafts him very happy.
Value: Early 1st round
3: Trey Lance, North Dakota State
6’3 7/8, 224 lbs.
After Trey Lance’s incredible 2019 season with 28 passing touchdowns, 14 rushing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and an undefeated season on the way to a North Dakota State FCS championship, everyone was excited to see what he would do next. Unfortunately, we never got to see a second full season of Trey Lance due to North Dakota State moving their football season from the fall to the spring due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, Lance and North Dakota State played in a single showcase game in October against Central Arkansas. Even with a small sample size of games played, Trey Lance has shown that he has the talent and advanced understanding of the game that will leave teams salivating at the idea of what he could become in the NFL.
The positives in Trey Lance’s game are clear as day. He has an unbelievably strong arm, he’s fast, and he’s a very physical runner of the football. It’s a joy to watch Trey Lance throw the football. The ball comes out of his hand with so much velocity and he makes some beautiful rainbow deep passes down the field. What impressed me the most about Lance is how under control he played given how talented he is. Lance, with all of his arm strength, probably could have gotten away with hunting for big plays down the field, but his willingness to make short passes when needed kept North Dakota State’s passing attack balanced and on schedule. Lance does a great job of taking care of the football as well, as evidenced by his lone career interception in college. He is also good at throwing on the run and making passes out of structure. Combining this with the physical rushing ability he brings to the quarterback position, Lance has the potential to be an absolute nightmare to defend in the NFL.
He is not a perfect prospect, and where he falls behind the top 2 quarterbacks for me is in his accuracy. Lance isn’t the most accurate when it comes to intermediate and deep throws. He doesn’t have bad accuracy by any means, but in the top of a quarterback class that is so talented none of the quarterbacks have obvious flaws, and this is one area where Trey Lance falls behind Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence. I also think that Trey Lance could be more efficient with his footwork but I don’t think this will be something that is hard for him to fix in the NFL. Overall, Trey Lance is a fantastic quarterback prospect with all of the potential in the world. He might be better off not starting right away due to his limited college experience, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if his natural talent and advanced approach to the game have him pushing for the starting job before too long.
Value: Early 1st round
2: Justin Fields, Ohio State
6’2 6/8, 227 lbs.
As one of the top overall recruits in the class of 2018, Justin Fields was expected to electrify Georgia’s offense and keep the Bulldogs in the National Championship hunt for the duration of Fields’s time in Athens. However, after getting very little playing time his freshman season behind current Buffalo Bills backup quarterback Jake Fromm, Fields transferred to Ohio State before the 2019 season. Fields’ time at Ohio State was electric as he finished his career with two College Football Playoff appearances, one national championship appearance, and an incredible 2019 season where Fields had 51 total touchdowns, 3 interceptions and finished as a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. Not everyone that has an illustrious college football career will have success in the NFL, but it’s impossible to watch Justin Fields and not get excited about what he can become. Fields has all of the skills anyone could ask for in a quarterback. He has a cannon for an arm, he’s extremely fast, and he (almost always) makes good decisions with the football. However, what I found the most impressive from Fields is unbelievable intermediate and deep accuracy. Fields makes pinpoint accurate throws 30-40 yards down the field at a frequency that doesn’t even make sense. Combining his unbelievable accuracy with his strong arm means that Fields can hit a receiver at almost any area of the field, and if the opposing defense makes any mistakes Fields will tear them apart.
Before diving into Fields’s film I knew he was going to be fast, but I did not expect him to be as fast as he was. Against Michigan State in 2020 Fields caught up to his running back Trey Sermon 50 yards down the field to block the lone defender chasing Sermon, which allowed Sermon to score. Fields had to use his legs heavily against Indiana in 2020 due to the constant pressure he was under, and he showed the ability to break tackles in the pocket and easily outrun defenders in pursuit of him. He will be one of the fastest quarterbacks in the NFL from the moment he is drafted, and he will add a dynamic rushing element from the quarterback position. Fields is very good at throwing on the run as well, and he’s very quick to get his feet set so he usually has a good throwing platform even when he’s escaping the pocket. One thing NFL teams will love about Fields is his toughness. Fields played through injuries against Michigan in 2019 and Northwestern in 2020, but perhaps no game was more memorable than his performance against Clemson in the 2020 College Football Playoff. After taking a serious hit to his midsection in the second quarter, Fields proceeded to not only finish the game in serious pain but go on to throw four more touchdowns after the hit to bring his total to six touchdown passes for the night in a blowout win over Clemson.
Fields brings so much to the table from a skill perspective, but he still has a couple of things he must fix if he wants to reach his potential at the NFL. Because Fields is so good as a deep passer, he has a tendency to hunt for big plays down the field. It works pretty well for him in college, but in the NFL when he doesn’t have as much time to throw he will have to learn to get the ball out faster in order to prevent unnecessary sacks. This isn’t to say that this is something Fields can’t learn or that he will have trouble learning how to be a better quick game distributor, it’s just something he hasn’t had to do much of up to this point. Fields generally does not have an issue with turnovers, as his accuracy often puts the ball in an area where only the receiver can catch it, but Fields occasionally makes bad decisions that lead to easily preventable interceptions. When playing Indiana in 2020 Fields had two interceptions where he threw the ball as he was getting tackled to try to avoid getting sacked, and against Northwestern in 2020 Fields tried to throw the ball away out of bounds but he ended up throwing it in an area where a defensive back was able to intercept it. This shouldn’t be an issue that follows him into the NFL, but if he isn’t more careful with the football in these situations he will hurt his team. Overall, Justin Fields is a special prospect. His combination of arm strength, accuracy, speed, and strength give him the potential to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL for years to come. If Fields can learn how to be an effective quick game distributor to go along with his deep passing skillset, he will be an absolute superstar.
Value: Top 5 pick
1: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
6’5 5/8, 213 lbs.
As the top overall recruit in the 2018 class, Trevor Lawrence has always been known as the next big thing. It didn’t take long for the noise around Lawrence to get even louder, as after winning the starting job four games into his true freshman season Lawrence went undefeated for the rest of the year, ending in a blowout win over Alabama in the national championship. Lawrence ended up finishing his college career with College Football Playoff appearances in all three years he started, a second national championship appearance in 2019, and he was named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy in 2020. As the presumed number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft for multiple years now, Trevor Lawrence has massive expectations on his shoulders as he heads to the NFL. Fortunately for Lawrence, he is no stranger to the spotlight and has all of the talent necessary to meet his sky-high expectations. The first thing that stands out about Trevor Lawrence is how naturally gifted of a thrower he is, specifically when it comes to ball placement. When I was watching Lawrence I couldn’t believe how many throws were in the perfect place for a receiver to catch. Lawrence seems to have a natural feel for exactly where to throw the ball and how to fit the ball in tight windows. Lawrence is also extremely effective when he has to throw on the run off-platform. He doesn’t just make throws to open receivers when he’s off-platform either. Lawrence will make tightly defended back shoulder throws while he is fading away from the receiver, and it is simply unbelievable to watch. To go with his elite ball placement Lawrence puts plenty of velocity on the ball when he needs to, allowing him to fit the ball into windows that don’t seem like they could possibly fit a football.
Clemson’s offense was generally pretty conservative, and Lawrence did a great job of taking the short throws when that’s what was available to him. But when Lawrence threw deep down the field, he put on display his elite combination of arm strength, accuracy, and ball placement. Lawrence also has deceptive speed, and he will take off if the opposing defense does not respect his running ability. He may not look very fast when he’s running, but he covers so much ground with each step that he’s a legitimate rushing threat that needs to be accounted for. It’s hard to find faults in Lawrence’s game, but there are a couple. Lawrence falls into the trap that almost all talented college quarterbacks do, and that is because they are so talented, they will try throws that they probably shouldn’t, because they can still make a good amount of the ill-advised throws. He will sometimes miss throws because he doesn’t set his feet, and this can lead to some interception-worthy throws. Lawrence also did not seem to have a fumbling problem from most of the games I watched, but against Ohio State in the 2020 College Football Playoff he fumbled the ball three times. This may have just been an unlucky game for Lawrence in that regard, but Lawrence will have to hold onto the football better as a runner. Overall, Trevor Lawrence is an unbelievable talent that has the tools to become the best quarterback in football. He makes perfect ball placement look so easy, and there doesn’t seem to be a throw on the field he cannot make. I only expect the legend of Trevor Lawrence to grow in the NFL.
Value: Top 5 pick
